By Brett Goldman
The bracket has been set and the madness is soon to be underway (if it isn't already). Since the March Madness field expanded in 1985, the 12 seed has upset the 5 seed 50 times and the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos could be the next one to join that group if they can defeat the Creighton Blue Jays on Saturday. Can the Gauchos pull it off or will the Blue Jays move on? I'll preview the matchup between these two teams and let you be the judge.
The Teams
The Creighton Blue Jays represent the Big East Conference as an at-large bid. They lost by 25 in the conference championship game against Georgetown, but much of that had to do with them shooting 29% from the field and giving up 12 offensive rebounds. The good news for the Blue Jays is that they can't play any worse than they did on Saturday.
The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos represent the Big West Conference as the conference champion. They defeated UC Irvine 79-63 to make it to their first NCAA tournament since 2011. They have won 18 of their last 19 games and went on a school record 13 game winning streak this season.
The Blue Jays are coached by Greg McDermott, father of Indiana Pacers forward (and former Blue Jay) Doug McDermott. McDermott has had a lot of success during his time in Omaha, winning nearly 67% of his games over 11 seasons. This will be his 6th NCAA tournament appearance with Creighton.
The Gauchos are coached by Joe Pasternack, who has really turned this program around. He has won 88 games in his first 4 seasons, the most of any UCSB head coach. This is his first NCAA tournament appearance.
Both Creighton and UCSB are on the older side. They both start 3 seniors and 2 juniors. These players are desperate to keep their seasons (and college careers) alive, which should make for a very entertaining game.
Creighton's plays at a normal pace. They are middle of the pack in the NCAA when it comes to possessions per game. On the other side, the Gauchos are one of the slowest paced teams in the country. While it helps them on defense, offensively they often rely on Big West Player of the Year JaQuori McLaughlin to make tough shots late in the shot clock.
While they play at different paces, Both teams are excellent at taking care of the basketball. They are both in the top 40 in the country when it comes to turnovers per game, a direct result of experience, smart players, and great coaching. They both need to be ready to take advantage at any point where the other falters.
The strength of the Blue Jays comes at the 3 point line. The Blue Jays have two players (Marcus Zegarowski and Mitchell Ballock) who shoot over 40% from deep and two more (Denzel Mahoney and Damien Jefferson) who can absolutely shoot the rock as well. As a team, they shoot 36.7% from long range, which ranks them just outside of the top 50 in the country. The Blue Jays are near the top 50 in points per game and are top 40 in assists per game as well. They can score in bunches and they can score efficiency. To be frank, this team knows how to create offense.
On the other side, the Gauchos hang their hat on the defensive end. They rank 20th in the country in points per game allowed and can force turnovers in bunches as well. Coach Pasternack always emphasizes defense, and this team is one of the best there is in that department. While they don't have an elite rim protector (nobody on the team averages even 1 block per game), they do a good job of pressuring ball handlers and forcing teams into tough shots.
The weakness of this Blue Jays team comes on the glass. They give up nearly 11 offensive rebounds per game and gave up 14 against Georgetown. That turned into 17 second chance points for the Hoyas. The Gauchos, on the other hand, are not typically a great offensive rebounding team, but when it mattered most against UC Irvine in the Big West championship they grabbed 9 offensive boards. Expect UCSB to try and crash the glass to create 2nd chance points just like they did against Irvine, or at least force Creighton to gang rebound and slow the pace of the game down.
Creighton also is a poor free throw shooting team. They shoot about 64% and only have 2 players who shoot above 70%. Late in games, this could prove to be crucial. If you can't make free throws, it becomes very difficult to put teams away. While the Gauchos don't send teams to the line often (they're 11th in the country in FTA against), the Blue Jays will have to make the most of their trips to the charity stripe.
The Gauchos biggest weakness is a team with a sturdy, long center. Amadou Sow, the Gauchos starting center, stands at 6 foot 9. While he possesses great strength at 235 pounds, he has struggled on both ends against some of the true 7 foot bigs in the conference due to being a tad undersized. The problem for Creighton is that they just don't have the personnel to take advantage of this weakness. Their tallest player, Ryan Kalkbrenner, is 7 feet tall but weighs the same as Sow and only plays about 14 minutes per game. While Kalkbrenner's length could absolutely give Sow problems, his slender frame could lead to Sow playing bully ball. If Kalkbrenner is not matched up with Sow, he will be going against Robinson Idehen, who is slightly longer than Sow but does not possess the same offensive skills Sow does. Idehen will not be an easy matchup for the Blue Jays either.
The Players
The Blue Jays' top scorer on the season is the previously mentioned Marcus Zegarowski. The brother of Orlando Magic guard Michael Carter-Williams, the first-team all Big East player is a flat out problem on the basketball court. He leads this team in assists as well as points and 3 pointers. He can shoot much better than his brother, both off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations. He is also this team's best free throw shooter. It is most likely that UCSB's Devearl Ramsey will be tasked with defending him for the majority of the game. Ramsey will try to give him as little space as possible and take away any open looks from deep.
Along with Zegarowski, the Blue Jays have 4 other scorers who average double digits. Any of Mitchell Ballock, Damien Jefferson, Denzel Mahoney, and Christian Bishop can go off on a given night. It's possible that the Blue Jays will try to play through whoever JaQuori McLaughlin is guarding in order to tire him out for the offensive end.
I've already talked about the Gauchos in this article, so if you want to know more about the players, take a look there. The biggest problem the Blue Jays are going to have defensively (outside of top scorer JaQuori McLaughlin, the Big West Player of the Year who can score efficiently at all 3 levels and is playing lights out right now) is Amadou Sow. The Blue Jays are weak on the inside. I've talked about their offensive rebounding, but they also do not have a true center on the floor most of the time. We saw the Blue Jays really struggle against big men all year long, exemplified by Qudus Wahab of Georgetown getting a double-double in the championship game. However, Christian Bishop is no joke despite being undersized for a starting center. He boasts an elite 94.4 defensive rating and shoots 67% from the field. The question will be whether he can keep up with 6 foot 9 Amadou Sow and 6 foot 10 Miles Norris's superior length on the inside.
The X-Factor for this game is going to be the aforementioned Miles Norris. Norris is 6 foot 10 and starts at power forward for the Gauchos. However, the Blue Jays start 4 guards and Bishop at center. Assuming Sow guards Bishop, who is Norris going to guard? Norris is extremely athletic, but no 6-10 guy outside of Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo can defend guards at a high level. If the Blue Jays can neutralize his size by forcing him to the perimeter, they will be in a much better position to win this game. On the flip side, if the smaller guards can't contain Norris on the offensive glass, the Gauchos will have a strong advantage.
The last thing on the Gauchos: they may be without their third leading scorer and 6th man Ajare Sanni. Sanni rolled his ankle pretty badly in the first half of the Big West Championship game and did not return. Josh Pierre-Louis, an athletic sophomore guard, will surely play a bigger role in this one. Don't be surprised if we get some minutes out of Sekou Toure as well. Toure doesn't provide much offensively, but he is as quick as they come and can play good defense while one of the guards is resting.
How do the Blue Jays win?
Creighton wins by shooting the ball like they have all season and making sure the Gauchos stay off the offensive glass as much as possible. If they can do those 2 things, UCSB is going to have a difficult time keeping up with their offensive firepower. We know the Blue Jays won't make many mistakes, so it's just about execution for the 5 seed to move on to the round of 32. I expect the Blue Jays to try come out of the gates strong and aggressive to try to put the poor performance in the Big East Championship out of their heads. If they get down early, it could be bad for their confidence.
How do the Gauchos win?
UCSB wins the same way they beat UC Irvine: be more physical and go after every loose ball. This is going to be the first time the Gauchos will be at a possible talent disadvantage this season. They're not going to beat the Blue Jays in a 3 point shooting track meet. They have to do the dirty work and take advantage of every mistake Creighton makes in order to win this game. Against Irvine, they scored 13 second chance points on 9 offensive rebounds and had 18 points off of 10 Anteater turnovers. The Gauchos will need more of the same if they want to pull off the upset on Saturday.
If I were to bet on this game, I would take UCSB +7. Even if the Gauchos do lose this game, their pace of play and the potential for offensive rebounds and second chance points almost ensures that it will be close.
Who do you have winning this one? Have any other sleepers in the tournament? Comment below or tweet me @brettauman.
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